Much has been made of the ‘legacy effect’ of the 2012 Olympics on British cycling. 52% of people included in an LSE survey saying that they had been inspired to take up cycling as a result of Hoy and Co’s Olympic exploits, and the government’s Ride to Work scheme saw a 30% increase in sign ups in the third quarter of 2012.
London 2012 changed the face of cycling in the UK forever, as a once in a lifetime event where some of the nation’s greatest athletes were at their peak for a home Olympics.
But could Tokyo produce something similar?
A year on from Tokyo 2020, Google searches show the trends in terms of public interest in cycling. As well as the UK, I am also seeing if wins in the Olympic cycling road race had a lasting effect on the interest in cycling in Ecuador and Austria, homes to champions Richard Carapaz and Anna Kiesenhofer.
How did Team GB do at Tokyo 2020?
Although less dominant than in previous Olympics, Team GB still topped the cycling medal table ahead of the Netherlands. By the closing ceremony, they won six golds, four silvers and two bronze medals.
Jason Kenny’s Keirin gold rounded off a strong campaign which saw both him and his wife Laura Kenny make history as Britain’s most decorated male and female athletes, while Matthew Walls also won Omnium gold.
Outside of GB’s famed track cycling prowess, Young Yorkshireman Tom Pidcock won the men’s mountain bike cross-country title, and BMX brought a further four medals.
Gold medals came in the women’s BMX freestyle and BMX racing thanks to Charlotte Worthington and Beth Shriever respectively. On the men’s side Kye White won BMX racing silver and Declan Brooks bronze in BMX freestyle.
Did the Olympics get Brits into cycling?
At first glance, it looks as though Olympic success may not have translated into the expected public interest in cycling. Searches for the term ‘cycling’ were actually lower immediately following the Olympics than they were at the end of 2021.
However, when we dive a bit deeper we can see more positive trends.
Increases in participation at BMX clubs across the country suggest a strong future for the sport. Considering that BMX was only introduced to the Olympics in 2008, Shriever and co could be laying the foundations for future dominance in the discipline by inspiring a generation of riders.
The percentage of UK cyclists who are club members also increased to 7.5% in November 2021, up from 6.25% in November 2020. This indicates new participants, and that people who were already cycling decided to take it more seriously.
The search volumes for terms such as ‘cycling clubs near me’ reflect this increase in membership. Peaking in July and holding the same level of interest through August and September, this is similar to ‘cycling clubs’, which saw searches increase through the summer following the Olympics, before peaking in September.
Search with intent
Brits also seemed to put their money where their mouth is when it came to their new hobby. Several searches that show intent to purchase products all peaked in July and August. These include ‘road bike’, ‘cycling clothes’ and ‘best road bike’. The most notable change was ‘best road bike’, which saw a 21% increase in search volume from June to July.
At first glance we may attribute this to a seasonal peak in buying. However, Google Trends suggests that searches for ‘best road bike’ tend to peak around April instead. This makes sense given that the year’s new models have recently been released, and the weather has improved sufficiently for people to not worry about going out on their new ride and instantly caking it in grime.
It’s also worth noting that despite the July 2021 increase, the search term didn’t see anywhere near as much interest as it did in spring 2020 as uncertainty around the pandemic kicked in and people either took up cycling as a way to explore, exercise and simply get out of the house. Forbes reports that cycling participation increased by 10% year on year in Spring 2020, exceeding all expectations.
This also raises the possibility that perhaps this influx of participants dampened the effect that the Olympics had. If these cyclists had been thinking about starting to cycle, buying a new bike or joining a club anyway, then perhaps the Olympics would have provided that last push had the pandemic not already done so.
Up and down for mountain biking
Despite Tom Pidcock bringing home Great Britain’s first Olympic medal in mountain biking, public interest in the sport was short lived.
Whereas BMX is a newer sport at Olympic level and is still growing at pace, mountain biking, at least in the UK, has seen interest decline for decades.
As we can see from this Google Trends graph, interest has steadily been decreasing since 2004. Peaks line up with the Olympics in 2004, 2012 and 2016, but the overall level of popularity in the UK is considerably lower than in the early 00s.
This is also highlighted by the lower variation between the summer peaks and winter troughs. Lower seasonal variation suggests that each summer, fewer people are searching for terms related to mountain biking. In contrast, road cycling has seen the opposite, growing in interest and having more pronounced seasonal peaks and troughs.
What about other countries?
The UK’s performance at Tokyo 2020 was always unlikely to spark the same levels of interest as London. For this reason, I also wanted to take a look at search data from Austria and Ecuador, homes to the road race winners but not traditional cycling powerhouses.
While Team GB expect to bring home medals in the cycling events, this isn’t the case for Austria and Ecuador. Anna Kiesenhofer’s gold was Austria’s first in cycling since 1896, while Richard Carapaz won Ecuador’s first medal in cycling.
Unlike Kiesenhofer, Carapaz was already a household name following his 2019 Giro d’Italia win, and a national hero in Ecuador.
Despite this, his Olympic title has pushed cycling interest in Ecuador to new levels.
Turning again to Google Trends data, we clearly see how popular the search term ‘ciclismo’ is after each Carapaz success. A first spike following his Giro win sees popularity return to normal before further interest after his podium finish at the 2020 Vuelta. All this of course pales in comparison with interest after his Olympic title.
An interesting finding from this graph is that after a lull in the winter, search volume in 2022 so far has consistently been at a higher level than in previous years. This suggests that Carapaz’s gold has inspired more lasting interest and participation among Ecuadorians.
This is unsurprising given the importance of an Olympic title to a nation that has only ever seen three golds. There is also an increased desire to watch Carapaz, with 18,100 searches in Ecuador for ‘ciclismo en vivo’ in May as Carapaz attempted to win the Giro, compared to 14,800 last year for the Olympics. At this point, it looks like the only thing Carapaz could do that might generate more interest in cycling is go and win the Tour de France.
Kiesenhofer’s win was of course a complete surprise, and captured Austria’s imagination when it comes to cycling. Voted Austrian sportswoman of the year for winning a first Austrian gold medal since 2004, her success inspired a nation.
Searches for ‘radfahren’ were 23% higher in May 2022 than in June 2021. ‘Fahrradwege’ has seen a 22% increase in the same time frame, and ‘fahrradrouten’ has seen a 125% growth in searches.
There is undeniably an increased demand for all things cycling in Austria. Both fitness and exploration-related terms seeing more popularity than in the first half of 2021.
Being a victory in the women’s road race, it is perhaps unsurprising to see searches for women’s bikes increase. How this compares to the impact of the Tour de France Femmes is yet to be seen. However, the overall growth in popularity for searches suggests that Kiesenhofer has sparked interest in cycling across all demographics.
A 2021 study from the Institute of Advanced Studies found that 24% of Austrians never cycle and have no interest in starting. As this was before the Olympics, I wonder how much lower that percentage would be after Kiesenhofer’s victory.
So what was Tokyo’s Olympic effect?
The simple answer is that it’s too early to tell how much Tokyo 2020 will help cycling.
We are seeing promising signs around increased participation and interest in BMX, with this discipline seemingly gaining the most interest. Searches for keywords indicating intent to purchase have also increased, which is reassuring for the industry as a whole.
However, that Pidcock’s mountain biking gold was just a positive spike in an otherwise long decline in interest sparks concern. If an Olympic title doesn’t slow the decline, then British Cycling needs to consider its approach to the discipline. This could mean encouraging youth participation or supporting promising riders as they rise through the ranks.
What the data confirms more than anything is that real Olympic legacies come from ground-breaking moments. For the UK, these moments came on the track and through Sir Bradley Wiggins between 2008 and 2012. For Ecuador and Austria, the road races in Tokyo could well represent that pivotal moment.
We can’t tell what will happen in the coming years. However, there is no denying that cycling is in a much stronger position in both countries than it was prior to the games.
It was always going to be hard to replicate 2012’s impact in Tokyo, yet the response has been positive. Cycling clearly still hasn’t reached its ceiling in the UK despite the influx of participants due to the pandemic.